The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Tuesday 04-21-09 at 5:00 AM ET, the EUR German ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report will be released for the month of March.

This report will also be released with EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report\.

The previous EUR German ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report came out on Tuesday 03-17-09 at 4:00 AM ET.

The EUR German ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report released in March, for the month of February, was set up as follows:

Previous Report: -5.8 – not revised.
Economists Forecast: -7.7 – not an improvement for the German economy.
The actual report: -3.5 – better than expected and good for the German economy.

The difference between the “actual” report and the “forecast” was 4.2, not good enough for a profitable trade.

I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February EUR German ZEW Survey report in March and here is what happened:

EUR/CHF – moved in a 10 PIP range for 19 minutes

EUR/GBP - moved up about 16 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved down about 30 PIPS in 48 minutes – wrong direction

EUR/JPY -  moved up about 30 PIPS in 3 minutes – right direction
moved down about 27 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 39 PIPS in 13 minutes – right direction

EUR/USD – moved up about 28 PIPS in 3 minutes – right direction
moved down about 14 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 27 PIPS in 16 minutes – right direction

There was some good market movement and some “scalping” profits were possible.

The EUR German ZEW Survey report for this month’s release ( a report on March EUR German ZEW Survey report) has a “forecast” of 1.8, an increase in the Economic Sentiment for that month.

If the “actual” EUR German ZEW Survey report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 10.0 or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.

So, let’s set this up:

The March previous= -3.5
The economists forecast= 1.8

If the “actual” report comes out 11.8 or more, this will be good for the EUR, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the EUR may move in favor of the EUR.

However, if the “actual” report comes out at -8.2 or less, this would be bad for the EUR and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the EUR may move against the EUR.

The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.

Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the German or European economy – could adversely affect the market.

Sometime after the end of the EUR German ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report I will post the results. So, check back!

Tuesday 04-28-09:

Here are the results of EUR German ZEW Survey (economic sentiment) report :

Previous Report: -3.5 – not revised.
Economists Forecast: 1.8 – an improvement for the European economy.
The actual report: 13.0  – Good for the European economy and a tradable amount.

The German ZEW Survey “actual” report came out at 13.0, which was good for the European economy, the market felt that way as well.

Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:

EUR/CHF - moved down about 20 PIPS and reversed about 8 PIPS
moved up about 22 PIPS next 4 minutes – right direction
moved down about 20 PIPS in 11 minutes – wrong direction

EUR/GBP – moved down about 20 PIPS in 8 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 23 PIPS in 16 minutes – right direction

EUR/JPY -  moved up about 50 PIPS in 5 minutes – right direction
moved down about 50 PIPS in 40 minutes – wrong direction

EUR/USD – moved up about 29 PIPS in 6 minutes – right direction
moved down about 35 PIPS in 51 minutes – wrong direction

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY were good for a “scalp“ in the first few minutes, both pair reversed down for a long period, small “scalps“ were possible.