On Friday 04-17-09 at 9:55 AM ET, the USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report will be released for the month of March.
This is report is released at 9:55 AM ET, however, most FOREX calendars show it as being released at 10:00 AM ET. It appears that many of the traders are not able to get the report at 9:55 AM ET – so, at times the market does not react until 10:00 AM ET or later.
I am able to get the report at the 9:55 AM time at the FOREX Factory Calendar – there is a button that appears next to the report about 5 minutes prior to release, at 9:55 AM I can start clicking on that button and within a minute or 2 the report results come up. Very handy.
The previous USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report came out on Friday 03-13-09 at 9:55 AM ET.
The USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report released in March, for the month of February, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 56.3K – down from 61.2K for the February report – no revision.
Economists Forecast: 49.9K – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: 56.6K – more than forecast by 6.7 and good for the US economy, but not enough for a trade or to move currency pairs in the right direction for long.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the March USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report and here is what happened:
EUR/USD – ranged about 5 PIPS at 9:55 AM to 10:00 AM
moved up about 28 PIPS 13 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 35 PIPS in 23 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – ranged about 12 PIPS at 9:55 AM to 10:00 AM
moved up about 45 PIPS in 11 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 64 PIPS 49 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – ranged about 10 PIPS at 9:55 AM to 10:00 AM
moved down about 80 PIPS in 16 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 60 PIPS in 44 minutes – right direction
USD/JPY – ranged about 5 PIPS at 9:55 AM to 10:00 AM
moved up about 5 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved down about 32 PIPS in 30 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 15 PIPS in 27 minutes – right direction
The USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) for this month’s release ( a report on March USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) ) has a “forecast” of 58.4K, a small increase in the health of the economy for that month.
If the “actual” USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 10 or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The March previous= 57.3K
The economists forecast= 58.4K
If the “actual” report comes out 68.4K or more, this will be good for the USD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move in favor of the USD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at 48.4K or less, this would be bad for the USD and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move against of the USD.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report I will post the results. So, check back!
Wednesday 04-17-09:
Here are the results of USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN P) report:
Previous Report: 57.3K – no revision.
Economists Forecast: 58.4K – an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: 61.69K – more than forecast by 3.5K and good for the US economy, but not enough for a trade or to move currency pairs in the right direction for long.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/USD – At 9:55 AM ET to 10:00 AM ET ranged
At 10:00 AM ET moved up about 10 PIPS 10 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 27 PIPS in 30 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – At 9:55 AM ET to 10:00 AM ET up/down
At 10:00 AM ET moved up about 10 PIPS 7 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 50 PIPS 52 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – At 9:55 AM ET to 10:00 AM ET down/up about 15 PIPS
At 10:00 AM ET moved up about 55 PIPS 26 minutes – right direction
USD/JPY – At 9:55 AM ET to 10:00 AM ET down/up about 5 PIPS
At 10:00 AM ET moved down about 42 PIPS 53 minutes - wrong direction
As you can see, the 5 minutes between the actual report release and the proposed release, the market seemed to be in limbo.
In spite of the small better than forecast report, the market did move enough after 10:00 AM ET for 3 currency pairs.
