On Tuesday 04-14-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD Core Retail Sales m/m and Core Producer Price Index m/m reports will be released for the month of March.
The previous USD Core Retail Sales m/m report came out on Thursday 03-12-09 at 8:30 AM ET along with the USD Initial Jobless Claims report which was from the week of March 5th.
The USD Core Retail Sales m/m report released in March, for the month of February, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 0.9% – revised to 1.6%.
Economists Forecast: -0.1% – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: +0.7% – greater than forecast by 0.8%, and was good for the US
economy.
The USD Initial Jobless Claims report released in March, for March 5th, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 639K – revised to 645K.
Economists Forecast: 642K – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: 654K – greater than forecast by 12K, and bad for the US
At this point in time, I believe that the Jobless Claims do have an effect on the mood of the currency trading market. The Jobless Claims coming out negative for US economy while the Retail Sales coming out positive for the US economy may be conflicting for some traders.
Only one currency pair moved steady in the right direction – USD/JPY, assuming the Retail Sales was the most influencing report.
The last 4 USD Core Retail Sales m/m “previous” reports have been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the March USD Core Retail Sales m/m report and here is what happened:
EUR/USD – moved up about 24 PIPS in 3 minutes - wrong direction
moved down about 33 PIPS in 13 minutes – right direction
moved up about 31 PIPS in 12 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 45 PIPS in 7 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 32 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 40 PIPS in 14 minutes – right direction
moved up about 34 PIPS in 11 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 90 PIPS in 9 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved down about 20 PIPS in 1 minute - wrong direction
moved up about 24 PIPS in 17 minutes – right direction
moved down about 30 PIPS in 10 minutes – wrong direction
USD/JPY – moved up about 95 PIPS in 40 minutes – right direction
Sometime after the end of the USD Core Retail Sales m/m report I will post a results. So, check back!
The USD Core Retail Sales m/m for this month’s release, a report for March has a “forecast” of 0.1%, however, there is yet another report being released at the same time, the USD Core Producer Price Index, which may either re-enforce the Retail Sales report or be in conflict. Just something to be aware of.
If the “actual” USD Core Retail Sales m/m report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 1.0% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report. Also be aware that the market may hesitate in wait for any revisions.
So, let’s set this up:
The March previous= 0.7%
The economists forecast= 0.1%
If the “actual” report comes out 1.1% or more, this will be good for the USD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move in favor of the USD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at -0.9% or less, this would be bad for the USD and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move against of the USD.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the USD Core Retail Sales m/m report I will post a results. So, check back!
Wednesday 04-14-09:
Here are the results of USD Core Retail Sales m/m report for this month:
Previous Report: 0.7% – no revision
Economists Forecast: 0.1% – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: -0.9% – less than forecast by 1.0%, and is not good for the US
economy.
The Core Producer Price Index m/m report released for this month , was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 0.2% – no revision
Economists Forecast: 0.1% – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: 0.0% – less than forecast, and bad for the US
economy.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/USD – moved down about 25 PIPS in 16 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 50 PIPS in 16 minutes – wrong direction
USD/CAD – ranged up
USD/JPY - moved down about 63 PIPS in 28 minutes – right direction
All of the economic reports came out in such a way as to be bad for the US economy.
Looks like the USD/JPY currency pair was the best trade today right from the first moment after the reports.
