On Monday 04-13-09 at 6:45 PM ET, the NZD Retail Sales report will be released for the month of March.
The previous NZD Retail Sales report came out on Thursday 03-12-09 at 6:45 PM ET.
The NZD Retail Sales report released in March, for the month of February, were set up as follows:
NZD Retail Sales
Previous Report: -1.0% – not revised.
Economists Forecast: -0.1% – an improvement, but still not good.
The actual report: -1.1% – worst than expected, and enough to move the markets.
I monitored 3 currency pairs during the March NZD Retail Sales report and here is what happened:
AUD/NZD – moved up about 10 PIPS in 3 minutes – right direction
moved down about 32 PIPS in 42 minutes – wrong direction
NZD/JPY – moved down about 38 PIPS in 47 minutes – right direction
NZD/USD - moved down about 34 PIPS in 47 minutes – right direction
The NZD Retail Sales report for this month’s release (reports on March) is as follows:
Retail Sales – Previous -1.1%
If the “actual” Retail Sales report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 1.0% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
Retail Sales
The March previous= -1.1%
The economists forecast= -0.5%
If the “actual” report comes out +0.5% or more, this will be good for the NZD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the NZD may move in favor of the NZD.
If the “actual” report comes out -0.5% or less, this will be bad for the NZD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the NZD may move against the NZD.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the US or Canadian economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the Employment Change and the Employment Rate reports I will post a results. So, check back!
Tuesday 04-14-09:
Here are the results of NZD Retail Sales reports:
NZD Retail Sales
Previous Report: -1.1% – not revised.
Economists Forecast: -0.5% – an improvement, but still not good.
The actual report: 0.2% – better than expected, possibly enough for a trade.
Here is how it affected the 5 currency pairs I followed this time:
AUD/NZD – Minor move up/down for 5 minutes
moved up about 35 PIPS in 55 minutes – wrong direction
EUR/NZD – Minor move up/down for 5 minutes
moved up about 45 PIPS in 7 minutes – wrong direction
NZD/CAD – Minor ranging
NZD/JPY – Minor move up/down for 11 minutes
moved up about 25 PIPS in 48 minutes – right direction
NZD/USD - Minor ranging
The currency pair NZD/JPY was the only pair that made any kind of a move in the right direction – however, the spread my broker has set for this currency pair trade was too great for any kind of profitable scalp.
