On Friday 04-03-09 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report will be released for the month of March.
The previous USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report came out on Wednesday 03-04-09 at 10:00 AM ET.
The USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report released in March, for the month of February, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 42.9 – up from 40.1 for the February report.
Economists Forecast: 41.2 – not an improvement for the US economy.
The actual report: 41.6 – greater than forecast by 0.4.
The last 4 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite “previous” reports have NOT been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the March USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report and here is what happened:
EUR/USD – moved up about 16 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 43 PIPS in 20 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 12 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 40 PIPS in 21 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved down about 25 PIPS in 7 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 55 PIPS in 13 minutes – right direction
USD/JPY – moved up about 11 PIPS in 7 minutes – right direction
moved down about 35 PIPS in 10 minutes – wrong direction
The USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for this month’s release ( a report on March USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite ) has a “forecast” of 41.9, a small increase in the health of the economy for that month.
If the “actual” USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 5 or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The March previous= 41.6
The economists forecast= 41.9
If the “actual” report comes out 46.6 or more, this will be good for the USD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move in favor of the USD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at 36.9 or less, this would be bad for the USD and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move against of the USD.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report I will post a results. So, check back!
Wednesday 04-03-09:
Here are the results of USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report:
The “actual” report came out at 40.8, not good for the USD and the US economy.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/USD – moved down about 18 PIPS in 6 minutes – wrong direction
then moved up about 45 PIPS in 22 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 38 PIPS in 17 minutes – right direction
then moved down about 50 PIPS in 33 minutes – wrong direction
USD/CAD – moved in a 10 PIP range for 33 minutes
USD/JPY - moved down about 35 PIPS in 48 minutes – right direction
Looks like only 3 of the currency pairs traded in the right direction eventually, so, if you were patient in the first few minutes of the market, and entered a trade with either of the 3 currency pairs which moved in the right direction, you could have had a winning trade.
Looks like the EUR/USD currency pair was the best trade today about 6 minutes after the report. The GBP/USD moved up well right from the get-go
