On Friday 04-03-09 at 4:30 AM ET, the GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report will be released for the month of March.
This report was also released with GBP-Official Reserves – Changes.
The previous GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report came out on Wednesday 03-04-09 at 4:30 AM ET.
The GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report released in March, for the month of February, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 42.5 – up from 40.2 February report.
Economists Forecast: 41.6 – not an improvement for the British economy.
The actual report: 43.2 – Good for the British economy.
The last 4 GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services “previous” reports have NOT been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report and here is what happened:
EUR/GBP – moved down about 5 PIPS in 3 minutes – right direction
moved up about 9 PIPS in 5 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 12 PIPS in 11 minutes – right direction
moved up about 22 PIPS in 8 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/CHF – moved up about 7 PIPS in 3 minutes – right direction
moved down about 15 PIPS in 5 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 24 PIPS in 11 minutes – right direction
moved down about 40 PIPS in 8 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/JPY - moved up about 15 PIPS in 6 minutes – right direction
moved down about 19 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 30 PIPS in 10 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved down about 19 PIPS in 8 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 22 PIPS in 11 minutes – right direction
The GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services for this month’s release ( a report on March PMI Services) has a “forecast” of 43.6, an increase in the business services for that month.
If the “actual” GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 2 or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The March previous= 43.2
The economists forecast= 43.6
If the “actual” report comes out 45.6 or more, this will be good for the GBP, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the GBP may move in favor of the GBP.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at 41.6 or less, this would be bad for the GBP and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the GBP may move against the GBP.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the British economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report I will post a results. So, check back!
Friday 04-03-09:
Here are the results of GBP-Purchasing Managers Index Services report:
The GBP PMI Services “actual” report came out at 45.5, which was good for the British economy, the market felt that way as well.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/GBP – moved down about 20 PIPS in 9 minutes – right direction
then moved up about 20 PIPS in 41 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/CHF – moved up about 40 PIPS in 9 minutes – right direction
then down about 50 PIPS in 49 minutes - wrong direction
GBP/JPY – moved up about 90 PIPS in 12 minutes – right direction
then moved down about 90 PIPS in 9 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 60 PIPS in 10 minutes – right direction
then moved down about 50 PIPS in 45 minutes – wrong direction
Looks like only 3 of the currency pairs traded in the right direction right off the bat with enough movement to “scalp“ any real profits.
Looks like the GBP/JPY currency pair was the best trade today, for the first 20 minutes or so.
