On Friday 03-27-09 at 3:30 AM ET, the GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report will be released for the period ending December 31st, 2008.
The previous GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report came out on Wednesday 02-25-09 at 2:30 AM ET for the period ending November 30th, 2008.
The GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report released in February, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: -1.5% – not real good for the GBP
Economists Forecast: -1.6% – not an improvement for the British economy.
The actual report: -1.5% – better than expected, but not good enough to favor the GBP.
There was no “revision” at that time. Any immediate “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report and here is what happened:
EUR/GBP - moved down about 14 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved up about 48 PIPS in 57 minutes - wrong direction
GBP/CHF – moved up about 25 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved down about 107 PIPS in 57 minutes - wrong direction
GBP/JPY – moved up about 30 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved down about 130 PIPS in 26 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/JPY – moved up about 25 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved down about 115 PIPS in 54 minutes – wrong direction
The GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ for this month’s release has a “forecast” of -1.5%, pretty much what the actual was in the February report.
If the “actual” GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 0.2% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The February previous= -1.5%
The economists forecast= -1.5%
If the “actual” report comes out -1.3% or higher, this will be good for the GBP, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the GBP may move in favor of the GBP.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at -1.7% or lower, this would be bad for the GBP and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the GBP may move against the GBP.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the British economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report I will post the results. So, check back!
Wednesday 03-27-09:
Here are the results of GBP Revised Gross Domestic Product QoQ report:
Looks like the value of goods and services last quarter, declined which is not good for the GBP!
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/GBP – moved up/down about 18/13 PIPS
Ranged for about 22 minutes
then moved down about 53 PIPS in 33 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/CHF – moved down/up about 15/33 PIPS
Ranged for about 3 minutes
moved up about 25 PIPS in 6 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 32 PIPS in 6 minutes – right direction
moved up about 70 PIPS in 23 minutes - wrong direction
GBP/JPY – moved down about 110 PIPS in 45 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved down about 60 PIPS in 45 minutes – right direction
Looks like the GBP/JPY currency pair was the best trade today, the GBP/USD currency pair did not do too bad.
