On Wednesday 03-25-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report will be released for the month of February.
The previous USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report came out on Thursday 02-26-09 at 8:30 AM ET. Also USD-Unemployment Claims was released at the same time.
The USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report released in February, for the month of January, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: -3.9% – revised a few minutes later to -5.5%
Economists Forecast: -2.1% – which is an improvement over last month.
The actual report: -2.5% – worse than forecast, but an improvement.
The last 2 USD-Core Durable Goods Orders “previous” reports have been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
The “actual” report of durable goods was bad for the USD, and the unemployment claims increased, which was bad for the USD as well – so!
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report and here is what happened:
EUR/USD – moved down about 28 PIPS in 3 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 38 PIPS in 15 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved down about 40 PIPS in 9 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 70 PIPS in 36 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved up about 20 PIPS 1st minute – wrong direction
moved down about 50 PIPS in 9 minutes – right direction
USD/JPY – moved down about 15 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
moved up about 15 PIPS in 5 minutes - wrong direction
moved down about 20 PIPS in 10 minutes – right direction
The USD-Core Durable Goods Orders for this month’s release ( a report on February Employment change) has a “forecast” of -2.0%, a decrease in durable goods orders for that month.
If the “actual” USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 1.5% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The February previous= -3.0%
The economists forecast= -2.0%
If the “actual” report comes out -3.5% or more, this will be bad for the USD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move against the USD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at -1.5% or less, this would be good for the USD and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the USD may move in favor of the USD.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report I will post a results. So, check back!
Wednesday 03-25-09:
Here are the results of USD-Core Durable Goods Orders report:
Looks like more businesses were purchasing durable goods last month, up 8.9% from the “revised” January report. This report is good for the USD! However, the FOREX market was a little erratic.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/USD – moved up about 25 PIPS in 6 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 20 PIPS in 12 minutes – right direction
moved up about 20 PIPS in 6 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 63 PIPS in 31 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 39 PIPS in 24 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 30 PIPS in 27 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved down about 45 PIPS in 26 minutes – wrong direction
then moved up about 35 PIPS in 29 minutes – right direction
USD/JPY – moved up about 20 PIPS 1st minute – right direction
then moved down about 22 PIPS in 14 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 33 PIPS in 30 minutes – right direction
Looks like the EUR/USD and USD/JPY currency pairs were the best trade today, with some patience.
