On Tuesday 03-24-09 at 5:30 AM ET, the GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report will be released for the month of February.
The previous GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report came out on Thursday 02-17-09 at 4:30 AM ET.
The GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report released in February, for the month of January, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: 3.1%
Economists Forecast: 2.6% – not an improvement.
The actual report: 3.0% – higher by 0.4% – good for the GBP and tradable
I monitored 5 currency pairs during the February GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report and here is what happened:
EUR/GBP – moved down about 69 PIPS in 36 minutes - right direction
GBP/CAD – moved up about 330 PIPS in 44 minutes – right direction
GBP/CHF – moved up about 135 PIPS in 36 minutes – right direction
GBP/JPY – moved up about 150 PIPS in 36 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 149 PIPS in 36 minutes – right direction
The GBP Consumer Price Index YoY for this month’s release ( a report on February GBP CPI ) has a “forecast” of 2.6%, a decrease in the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers which was 3.0% last month.
If the “actual” GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 0.2% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The February previous= 3.0%
The economists forecast= 2.6% for this month.
If the “actual” report comes out 2.8% or more, this will be good for the GBP, and a big surprise for traders. The GBP/USD currency pair could shoot up.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at 2.4% or less, this would be bad for the GBP and again, a big surprise for traders. The GBP/USD currency pair could shoot down.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.K. economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report I will post a results. So, check back!
Tuesday 03-24-09:
Here are the results of GBP Consumer Price Index YoY report:
Looks like the GBP Consumer Price Index YoY improved last month, 0.2% from the January report. This report is good for the GBP!
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/GBP – moved down about 48 PIPS in 39 minutes – right direction
GBP/CHF – moved up about 90 PIPS in 31 minutes – right direction
GBP/JPY – moved up about 70 PIPS in 4 minutes – right direction
moved down about 120 PIPS in 56 minutes – wrong direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 65 PIPS in 4 minutes – right direction
moved down about 110 PIPS in 56 minutes – wrong direction
Looks like only 2 of the currency pairs traded in the right direction, so, if you entered a trade with either of the EUR/GBP or GBP/CHF currency pairs which moved in the right direction, you could have had a winning trade.
Looks like the GBP/CHF currency pair was the best trade today.
