On Thursday 03-12-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD Core Retails Sales report and USD Initial Jobless Claims report will be released for the month of February.
The previous USD Core Retails Sales and USD Initial Jobless Claims reports came out on Thursday 02-12-09 at 8:30 AM ET.
The USD Core Retails Sales and USD Initial Jobless Claims reports released in February, for the month of January, was set up as follows:
USD Core Retails Sales;
Previous Report: -3.1% – down from -1.6% (revised) December report.
Economists Forecast: -0.5% – a nice improvement to the US economy.
The actual report: +0.9% – up by 4% sales – good for the economy
USD Initial Jobless Claims;
Previous Report: 626K – revised from a week earlier report.
Economists Forecast: 610K – a nice improvement to the US economy.
The actual report: 623K – lower by 3K
The last 4 USD Core Retails Sales “previous” reports have been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release, February was no exception, it was “revised” by -0.1% to -3.2%.
The USD Initial Jobless Claims was also revised up to 631K
The “revisions” could have an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February USD Core Retails Sales and USD Initial Jobless Claims report and here is what happened:
EUR/USD – moved against the USD about 36 PIPS first 5 minutes – wrong direction
Then moved down about 47 PIPS in 8 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved against the USD about 47 PIPS first 5 minutes – wrong direction
Then moved down about 30 PIPS in 8 minutes – right direction
Reversed and moved against the USD about 46 PIPS in 6 minutes – wrong
direction
USD/CAD – moved against of the USD about 30 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
then moved up about 20 PIPS in one minute – right direction
Then moved against the USD 19 PIPS next minute – wrong direction
USD/JPY – moved up 23 PIPS in 4 minutes – right direction
Moved down about 15 PIPS in 4 minutes – wrong direction
The USD Core Retails Sales for this month’s release (on the month of February) has a “forecast” of -0.1% for retail sales.
If the “actual” USD Core Retails Sales report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 0.5% or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
USD Initial Jobless Claims for this month’s release (on the month of February) has a “forecast” of 644K for jobless claims.
So, let’s set this up:
Retail Sales -
The February previous= 0.9%
The economists forecast= -0.1%
If the “actual” report comes out +0.4% or more, this will be good for the USD, and a big surprise for traders. The currency pairs that involve the USD could move in favor of the USD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at -0.6% or less, this would be bad for the USD and again, a big surprise for traders. The currency pairs that involve the USD could move against the USD.
Concerning the USD Initial Jobless Claims report, this report has become an important item of interest lately, so it is important that this report re-enforce the Core Retails Sales report.
In other words, if the Initial Jobless Claims goes down and the Retail Sales goes up, this will be good for the USD and any currency pair which involves the USD.
If the “actual” USD Initial Jobless Claims report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 50K or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the USD Core Retails Sales report I will post a results. So, check back!
Thursday 03-12-09:
Here are the results of USD Core Retails Sales report and the Initial Jobless Claims:
The Jobless claims increased from 645K (revised) from last months 639K, to 654K new claims. This is not good for the economy, however!
The Core retails sales report came out at a +0.7%, up +0.8% from the “forecast” of -01%. The “revision” was a +1.6% increase in retail sales from the previous month of February, good for the economy, but a possible conflict with jobless claims.
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
EUR/USD – moved up about 24 PIPS in 3 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 33 PIPS in 13 minutes – right direction
moved up about 31 PIPS in 12 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 45 PIPS in 7 minutes – right direction
GBP/USD – moved up about 32 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 40 PIPS in 14 minutes – right direction
moved up about 34 PIPS in 11 minutes – wrong direction
then moved down about 90 PIPS in 9 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved down about 20 PIPS in 1 minute – wrong direction
then moved up about 24 PIPS in 17 minutes – right direction
moved down about 30 PIPS in 10 minutes – wrong direction
USD/JPY - then moved up about 95 PIPS in 40 minutes – right direction
Looks like 3 of the currency pairs could have been traded in the right direction eventually, so, if you were patient. One currency pair took off in the right direction from the start.
Looks like the USD/JPY currency pair was the best trade today.
