On Friday 03-13-09 at 7:00 AM ET, the CAD-Net Change in Employment report will be released for the month of February.
The previous CAD-Net Change in Employment report came out on Wednesday 02-06-09 at 7:00 AM ET.
The CAD-Net Change in Employment report released in February, for the month of January, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: -20.4K – up from -70.6K January report.
Economists Forecast: -40.0K – not an improvement for the Canadian economy.
The actual report: -129K – greater than forecast by -89K.
The last 4 CAD-Net Change in Employment “previous” reports have NOT been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an had an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 3 currency pairs during the February CAD-Net Change in Employment report and here is what happened:
CAD/JPY - moved against the CAD about 55 PIPS in 6 minutes – right direction
EUR/CAD – moved against the CAD about 140 PIPS in 15 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved against the CAD about 100 PIPS in 6 minutes – right direction
The CAD-Net Change in Employment report for this month’s release ( a report on February Employment change) has a “forecast” of -50K, a decrease in the number of unemployed persons for that month.
If the “actual” CAD-Net Change in Employment report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 20K or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The February previous= -129K
The economists forecast= -50K
If the “actual” report comes out -70K or more, this will be bad for the CAD, and a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the CAD may move against the CAD.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at -30K or less, this would be good for the CAD and again, a big surprise for traders. Any currency pair which includes the CAD may move in favor of the CAD .
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. or Canada economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the CAD-Net Change in Employment report I will post a results. So, check back!
Friday 03-13-09:
Here are the results of CAD-Net Change in Employment report:
Looks like more people in Canada lost their jobs last month, 82,600. This report is bad for the CAD!
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
CAD/JPY - moved down about 28 PIPS first minute – right direction
then moved up about 28 PIPS in 4 minutes – wrong direction
moved down about 40 PIPS in 38 minutes – right direction
EUR/CAD – moved up about 52 PIPS first minute – right direction
then moved down about 49 PIPS in 2 minutes - wrong direction
moved up about 55 PIPS in 39 minutes – right direction
GBP/CAD – moved up about 52 PIPS first minute – right direction
then moved down about 50 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 75 PIPS in 16 minutes – right direction
USD/CAD – moved up about 44 PIPS first minute – right direction
then moved down about 35 PIPS in 2 minutes – wrong direction
moved up about 62 PIPS in 40 minutes – right direction
Looks like all 4 of the currency pairs traded in the right direction eventually, so, if you were patient in the first few minutes of the market, and entered a trade with either of the 4 currency pairs which moved in the right direction, you could have had a winning trade.
Looks like the GBP/CAD and USD/CAD currency pairs were the 2 best trade pairs for today.
