On Wednesday 03-11-09 at 6:30 PM ET, the AUD Employment Change report will be released for the month of February.
The previous AUD Employment Change report came out on Wednesday 02-11-09 at 5:30 PM ET.
The AUD Employment Change report released in February, for the month of January, was set up as follows:
Previous Report: -1.2K – up from -15.6 from the December report.
Economists Forecast: -18.5K – looked bad for the economy.
The actual report: +1.2K – even better by +19.7K and good for the economy
The last 2 AUD Employment Change “previous” reports have not been “revised” just a few minutes after the actual report release.
The “revisions” could have an effect on the currency market – but I have not seen it yet.
I monitored 4 currency pairs during the February AUD Employment Change report and here is what happened:
AUD/JPY – moved in favor of the AUD about 70 PIPS in 22 minutes
AUD/NZD - moved in favor of the AUD about 140 PIPS in 22 minutes
AUD/USD – moved in favor of the AUD about 78 PIPS in 22 minutes
EUR/AUD – moved in favor of the AUD about 160 PIPS in 22 minutes
The AUD Employment Change report for this month’s release ( a report on February Employment change) has a “forecast” of -21.2K, a decrease in the number of employed persons to -20.0K, a loss of almost 20K jobs.
If the “actual” AUD Employment Change report comes out less or more than the “forecast” by a large amount, say 25K or more, this would be a huge surprise for FOREX traders and the market may move considerably in the following minutes of the report.
So, let’s set this up:
The February previous= +1.2K
The economists forecast= -21.2K
If the “actual” report comes out -42.6K or more, this will be real bad for the AUD, and a big surprise for traders. The AUD/USD currency pair could shoot down.
However, if the “actual” report comes out at 4.2K or less, this would be good for the AUD and again, a big surprise for traders. The AUD/USD currency pair could shoot up.
The probabilities set forth above are assuming no unpredictable events are taking place at the same time.
Speeches on the economy by government officials, or a situation somewhere in the world that could have an impact on the U.S. or Australian economy – could adversely affect the market.
Sometime after the end of the AUD Employment Change report I will post a results. So, check back!
Thursday 03-12-09:
Here are the results of AUD Employment Change report:
Looks like less people lost their jobs than forecast last month, by 23,000. This report is good for the AUD!
Here is how it affected the 4 currency pairs I follow:
AUD/JPY – moved up about 21 PIPS – down about 34 PIPS the first minute
then moved up about 45 PIPS in 19 minutes – right direction
AUD/NZD – moved down about 55 PIPS – up about 60 PIPS the first minute
then became erratic
AUD/USD – moved up about 31 PIPS – down about 52 PIPS the first minute
then moved up about 34 PIPS in 23 minutes – right direction
EUR/AUD – moved down about 9 PIPS – up about 19 PIPS the first minute
then moved down about 78 PIPS in 18 minutes – right direction
Looks like only 3 of the currency pairs traded in the right direction after the first minute, so, if you were patient in the first few minutes of the market, and entered a trade with either of the 3 currency pairs which moved in the right direction, you could have had a winning trade.
Looks like the EUR/AUD currency pair was the best trade yesterday.
