The October report for the GBP Manufacturing PMI was released November 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 AM ET US.
This is the only economic report being released this day, at this time, so, there is very little chance of any conflicting stats. (Of course, if there is something that happens that is independent of the economic report, something unexpectedly earth rocking, the market may move in an unexpected fashion.
The report is forecast at 40.1, the last report was at 41.0, this means that the economy is predicted to be in a decline. Therefore, the value of the GBP may be going down, if it truly is in a decline, some people will be selling the GBP and buying a better currency.
A surprise change of 4 either way should be big. If that is the case!
The following might might have been a good way to trade:
If the report is 36.1 or lower – SELL GBP
If the report is 44.1 or higher – BUY GBP
Results:
GBP Manufacturing PMI
Predicted: 40.0 41.0
Actual: 41.5 40.0 41.2
As you can see, there was not much deviation from the prediction of 40.0, we were looking for a change of at least 4 either up or down in order to “surprise” the market.
A 1.4 difference from the prediction had very little affect – here is was happened in the charts:
Charts:
EUR/GBP – About 10 minutes prior to the FA, the market changed direction,
it had been slowly moving up – it appears that many traders
were closing their trades causing the market to go down.
Then the report was released:
Not much movement the first 2 minutes, then it started up
the next 17 minutes for a total of about 22 PIPS from when
the report was released – looks like it was a continuation of what
it had been doing prior to the FA.
GBP/USD — About 12 minutes prior to the FA, the market changed direction,
it had been slowly moving down – it appears that many traders
were closing their trades causing the market to go up.
Then the report was released:
Not much movement the first 7 minutes, then it started down
the next 22 minutes for a total of about 60 PIPS from when
the report was released – looks like it was a continuation of what
it had been doing prior to the FA.
GBP/JPY – Market ranged up and down about 40 PIPS until the FA report
was released.
Then the report was released:
The 1st minute of the report the market spiked up about 22 PIPS
then retraced about 10 PIPS – then continued down the next 10
minutes for about 28 PIPS. After a brief spike up, it continued down.
GBP/CHF — Market ranged up and down about 40 PIPS until the FA report
was released.
Then the report was released:
The 1st minute of the report the market spiked up about 21 PIPS
then retraced about 8 PIPS – then continued down the next 9
minutes for about 23 PIPS. Then it moved up the next 6
minutes, reversed, and continued down.
