Preview – USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports

March 11, 2010 – 10:09 am


Tomorrow, Friday 03-12-10 at 9:55 AM ET the University of Michigan will be releasing two news reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, which are released monthly.

The last time this report was released was on Friday, 02-19-10, I wrote a “follow up” post, click here for a review.

By reviewing last months post and the charts, you can learn much about how to trade and what are the best currency pairs to monitor for a trade set up.

Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.

I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.

Lets see how the stats are for this report tomorrow:

USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:

Previous = 73.6

Forecast =  74.0

The U of M believes that “confidence” is improving just a little bit.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-7-55AM-03-12-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
_______________74.0________73.6
Out at 78.0 or higher – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 70.0 or lower – SELL EUR/USD

Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET. Check the charts for last month for an idea how the market reacts.

I will post a “follow up” of this months reports.

This report is next scheduled for release on Friday, 04-16-10 at 8:55 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – USD – Core Retail Sales MoM and Retail Sales MoM

March 11, 2010 – 9:42 am


Tomorrow, Friday, 03-12-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports will be released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

Along with these USD reports, there is a USD – Retail Sales excluding autos and gas report release:

I did a “follow up” post of last months news release, click here to see what happened.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what is happening on Friday, 03-12-10:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.6%

Forecast = 0.1%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.5%

Forecast = -0.1%

This looks like the economists believe that the USD Core Retail Sales and the Retails Sales will show a decline in the US economy this time. I will be watching that they go in the same direction.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-6-30AM-03-12-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.1%______   0.6%
out at 0.6% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.4% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________-0.1%________ 0.5%

Also, pay attention to your “broker spread” when selecting currency pairs to trade.

I will post a “follow up” of this report soon after.

The next time this is scheduled to be released is on Wednesday, 04-14-10 at 7:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports

March 11, 2010 – 9:06 am


Tomorrow, Friday, 03-12-10 at 7:00 AM ET Canada is releasing their monthly Net Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. These reports are released by “Statistics Canada”. -

I did a post “follow up” of last months reports, you can click here to see that post.

I did have a winning trade last month.

These two reports are at times conflicting, so  –  be aware!

Here is the set up tomorrow:

CAD Employment Change stats:

Previous = 43.0K

Forecast = 17.5K

CAD Unemployment Rate stats:

Previous = 8.3%

Forecast = 8.3%

Even though the Unemployment Rate “forecast“ does not change from the “previous“, it could have a positive affect on the Canadian economy if the “actual“ comes out that way.

And, the “forecast” for the Employment Change is not good for the Canadian economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-5-00AM-03-12-10
Looking for a 20K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_______________17.5K________43.0K
out at -2.5K or less – BUY GBP/CAD
out at 37.5K or higher – SELL GBP/CAD


Actual < Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Unemployment Rate
________________ 8.3%________ 8.3%

Again, I will be looking for at least a 15K to 20K difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” of the Change in Employment – also, at least a 0.1% change in the Unemployment rate. Of course, both either in favor of or against the CAD.

The currency pair GBP/CAD looks good for my trade set up, I won 1 trade last month with this currency pair.

I will post a “follow up” soon after.

The next schedule release of these reports is Friday, 04-09-10 at 6:00 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Remember, “Past performances are not an indication of future results!”

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Employment Economics | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – NZD Retail Sales m/m and NZD Core Retail Sales m/m reports

March 10, 2010 – 10:46 am


On Thursday, 03-11-10 at 4:45 PM ET, the New Zealand Statistics will release the monthly NZD Retail Sales m/m and NZD Core Retail Sales m/m reports

This is my first post for these two reports, they are stand alone economic reports.

The last time these two reports were released was on Thursday, 02-11-10 at 4:45 PM ET.

Here is what happened then:

NZD Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = 0.8%

Forecast = 0.7%

Actual = 0.0%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = 0.8%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = -0.8%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

NZD 2-45PM-02-11-10
Looking for a 1.0 Difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for NZD
NZD Retail Sales m/m   high spread
——actual———-forecast———-previous
____0.0%________0.7%________0.8%
out at 1.7% or higher – BUY – NZD/USD
out at -0.3% or lower – SELL – NZD/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.7%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.8%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
___ -1.8% ______0.3% _________0.8%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 2.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.6%

Here are the charts:

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

a one minute AUD/NZD chart

This currency pair AUD/NZD spike up/down 1st minute about 70 PIPS/ 50 PIPS
Moved up the next 61 minutes about 50 PIPS – right direction

(EUR/NZD)

a one minute EUR/NZD currency chart

a one minute EUR/NZD chart

This currency pair EUR/NZD spike up/down 1st minute about 117 PIPS/ 84 PIPS
Moved up the next 60 minutes about 70 PIPS – right direction

(NZD/CAD)

a one minute NZD/CAD currency chart

a one minute NZD/CAD chart

This currency pair NZD/CAD spike down/up 1st minute about 41 PIPS/ 32 PIPS
Moved down the next 60 minutes about 36 PIPS - right direction

(NZD/JPY)

a one minute NZD/JPY currency chart

a one minute NZD/JPY chart

This currency pair NZD/JPY spike down/up 1st minute about 38 PIPS/ 27 PIPS
Moved down the next 60 minutes about 24 PIPS – right direction

(NZD/USD)

a one minute NZD/USD currency chart

a one minute NZD/USD chart

This currency pair NZD/USD spike down/up 1st minute about 43 PIPS/ 36 PIPS
Moved down the next 60 minutes about 32 PIPS – right direction
Had 2 trade wins here!!!

Looks like the currency pair EUR/NZD had the best move.

Here is what is happening tomorrow:

NZD Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.3%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = -1.8%

Forecast = 0.6%

It appears that the two reports are good for the NZD .

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

NZD 2-45PM-03-11-10
Looking for a 1.0 Difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for NZD
NZD Retail Sales m/m   high spread
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.3%________0.0%
out at 1.3% or higher – SELL – EUR/NZD
out at -0.7% or lower – BUY – EUR/NZD
NZD Core Retail Sales m/m-     0.6%    -1.8%

I am not sure which report has the greatest impact on the market, so I will not trade unless both are headed in the same direction.

Soon after the reports have been released I will post a “follow up” report of the results.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Tuesday, 04-13-10 at 5:45 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Follow Up – USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change report

March 9, 2010 – 11:00 am


On Wednesday, 03-03-10 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” was released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

I did a “preview” of this months report, posted on Tuesday, 03-02-10, click here for a review.

Let us check out what has happened:

USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:

Previous = -22K—————revised = -60K

Forecast = -15K

Actual = -20K

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-6-15AM-03-03-10
Looking for a 50K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________-15K________-22K
____-20K________ -15K_______ -60K
out at 35K or higher – BUY USDJPY
out at -65K or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 5K
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 2K
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 40K

The “actual” and the “forecast” were not far enough apart to make a good trade – but the “actual” and the “previous” looked good for the USD. So, it was difficult to make any decision about a trade.

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair spiked up/down for 4 minutes about 17 PIPS/ 20 PIPS
Moved up next 37 minutes about 33 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair spiked up/down for 2 minutes about 5 PIPS/ 14 PIPS
Moved up next 39 minutes about 43 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair spiked up/down for 4 minutes about 16 PIPS/ 31 PIPS
Moved up next 11 minutes about 17 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 2 minutes about 17 PIPS
Moved up next 15 minutes about 23 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved down for 22 minutes about 22 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair spiked up/down for 4 minutes about 13 PIPS/ 18 PIPS
Ranged!

The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday, 03-31-10 at 7:15 AM ET.

I will probably write a “preview” post a day or two before.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Employment Economics | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – AUD Employment Change and AUD Unemployment Rate reports

March 9, 2010 – 9:18 am


On Wednesday, 03-10-10 at 7:30 PM ET, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly AUD Employment Change and AUD Unemployment Rate reports

I posted a “follow up” of these reports on Wednesday, 02-17-10, click here to see what happened.

The additional report:

AUD – RBA Bulliten

Released by the Reserve Bank of Australia

Last month both reports were good for the AUD – I did enter a trade and had a winner, check out the “follow up” above.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

AUD Employment Change – Stats

Previous = 35.2K

Forecast = 15.1K

AUD Unemployment Rate – Stats

Previous = 5.3%

Forecast = 5.3%

If the unemployment rate does not go up – that will be good for the AUD!!

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

AUD-5-30PM-03-10-10
Looking for a 20K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_______________15.1K________35.2K
out at 35.1K or higher – BUY  AUD/NZD
out at -05.1K or lower – SELL AUD/NZD
Actual < Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Unemployment Rate
————————-5.3%———— 5.3%

I will post a “follow up” of this report soon after.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Wednesday, 04-07-10 at 8:30 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Employment Economics | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview GBP – Industrial Production MoM and YoY, and Manufacturing Production MoM and YoY reports

March 9, 2010 – 8:34 am


Tomorrow, Wednesday, 03-10-10 at 4:30 AM ET the GBP Industrial Production MoM and YoY, and Manufacturing Production MoM and YoY reports will be released.

These two reports stand alone at this time.

On Tuesday, 02-16-10, I wrote a “follow up” post of last months results, click here for a review.

The Industrial Production reports appear to have the greatest impact on the currency markets, but the impact can be even greater if the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both come out moving in the same direction, both negative or positive.

last month both reports came out good for the GBP – I did enter 2 trades of the GBP/JPY currency pair, both were winners – see the “follow up” above.

These reports are released by the UK National Statistics Publication Hub.

Lets set this up for 03-10-10.

GBP – Industrial Production MoM stats:

Previous = 0.5%

Forecast = 0.2%

Manufacturing Production MoM stats:

Previous = 0.9%

Forecast = 0.3%
It appears that both reports are “forecast”  bad for the UK economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

GBP-2-30AM-03-10-10
Looking for a 0.4% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.2%________0.5%
Out at 0.6% or higher – BUY GBP/JPY
Out at -0.2%  or lower- SELL GBP/JPY
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
________________0.3%________ 0.9%
Watch for conflict       Trade against it??

After going back over my records for last month I was set up to trade the GBP/JPY currency pair – worked out well – so I will set up for the GBP/JPY again.

I will post a “follow up” report soon after.

The next scheduled release of this report will be on Tuesday, 04-13-10 at 3:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Follow Up – AUD Gross Domestic Product QoQ report

March 8, 2010 – 10:08 am


On Tuesday, 03-02-10 at 7:30 PM ET, the AUD Gross Domestic Product QoQ report was  released.

Also, the AUD Gross Domestic Product YoY report was released.

I wrote a “preview” post on Monday, 03-01-10, click here for a review.

These news reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Here is how the report for this month came out:

AUD Gross Domestic Product YoY – Stats

Previous = 0.2%————–revised = 0.3%

Forecast = 0.9%

Actual = 0.9%

It appears the economists believed the AUD economy was improving – and it came out that way. There was not enough difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” for a trade.

Here is how I was set up for this news report.

AUD-5-30PM-03-02-10
Looking for a 0.2%  difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD GDP q/q
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.9%________0.2%
_____0.9%_______ 0.9%_______ 0.3%
Out at 1.1% or higher – BUY AUD/NZD
Out at 0.7% or lower – SELL AUD/NZD
Neutral – “actual” came out just as “forecast”
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.6%

Here are the charts:

(AUD/JPY)

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

a one minute AUD/JPY chart

This currency pair AUD/JPY spiked down/up/down the 1st minute about 3 PIPS/ 20 PIPS/ 12 PIPS
Moved down next 2 minutes about 14 PIPS
Moved up the next 6 minutes about 26 PIPS

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

a one minute AUD/NZD chart

This currency pair AUD/NZD spiked up/down/up the 1st minute about 12 PIPS/ 27 PIPS/ 14 PIPS
Ranged for 18 minutes

(AUD/USD)

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

a one minute AUD/USD chart

This currency pair AUD/USD spiked up/down/up the 1st minute about 11 PIPS/ 17 PIPS/ 2 PIPS
Moved down next 2 minutes about 8 PIPS
Moved up the next 6 minutes about 13 PIPS
Moved down next 22 minutes about 28 PIPS

(EUR/AUD)

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

a one minute EUR/AUD chart

This currency pair EUR/AUD spiked up/down/up the 1st minute about 8 PIPS/ 26 PIPS/ 13 PIPS
Ranged for 8 minutes
Moved up the next 6 minutes about 21 PIPS

The next scheduled release of these two reports is on Tuesday, 06-01-10 at 7:30 PM ET.
The schedule could change.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Follow Up – AUD Retail Sales m/m report

March 8, 2010 – 8:46 am


On Wednesday, 03-01-10, at 7:30 PM ET the AUD Retail Sales m/m report was released.

Also, the AUD Building Approvals report was released.

I did a “preview” post of this AUD Retail Sales report on Monday, 03-01-10, click here to check it out.

The AUD Retail Sales m/m and Building Approvals reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Lets take a look at what happened:

AUD Retail Sales m/m Stats:

Previous = 2.2%———–revised = 5.2%

Forecast = 0.6%———–revised = 0.7%

Actual = -0.7%

AUD Building Approvals MoM came out – I have noticed that the FOREX traders seem to be paying some additional attention to real estate related news reports.

So I was paying attention to how that comes out – I was hopeful both reports would be  going in the same direction, which they did not – I did enter 2 trades and both were losers.

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

AUD-5-30PM-03-01-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Building Approvals m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____-7.0%______0.6%________2.2%
_____-7.0% ______0.7% _______5.2%
Out at 1.6% or higher – BUY AUD/JPY
Out at -0.4% or lower – SELL AUD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower the “forecast” by 7.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the revised “forecast” by 7.7%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the “previous” by 9.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the revised “previous” by 12.2%

AUD Retail Sales m/m
________________1.0% ________-0.7%
______1.2% ______0.8%_______ -0.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 2.1%

Obvious conflict here – I failed to pick up on it!!!

Here are the charts:

(AUD/JPY)

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

This AUD/JPY currency pair spike down/up/down 1st minute about 1 PIP/ 30 PIPS/ 27 PIPS
Move up next 10 minutes about 15 PIPS – ???? direction

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

This AUD/NZD currency pair spike up/down/up 1st minute about 20 PIP/ 36 PIPS/ 15 PIPS
Move up next 18 minutes about 16 PIPS – ???? direction – losing trades here

I entered 3 trades again this time with this currency pair and lost all three – this is the third time I have traded this news report but with a different currency pair – all 3 times I was a loser. I am going to re-evaluate this news report.

(the 3rd trade was by accident – it taught me something about my trading platform!)

Perhaps the “real estate” report is affecting the market more then “retail sales”.

(AUD/USD)

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

This AUD/USD currency pair spike up/down/up 1st minute about 31 PIP/ 39 PIPS/ 5 PIPS
Move up next 10 minutes about 22 PIPS - ???? direction

(EUR/AUD)

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

This EUR/AUD currency pair spike down/up/down 1st minute about 45 PIP/ 52 PIPS/ 5 PIPS
Move down next 56 minutes about 42 PIPS – ???? direction

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 03-30-10 at 7:30 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this release.

So—Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Housing Reports, Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview GBP – RICS House Price Balance report

March 7, 2010 – 10:04 am


Tomorrow, Monday 03-08-10 at 5:01 PM ET, the GBP RICS House Price Balance report will be released.

This report will be released with one other economic news report -

GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

This is my first posting of these reports.

The RICS House Price Balance report is released by the U.K.s RICS, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors on a monthly basis.

GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y is released by the British Retail Consortium.

Here is the set up for last month and the results:

GBP RICS House Price Balance Stats:

Previous = 30%

Forecast = 28%

Actual = 32%

Here is how I was set up last month and the results:

GBP 7-01PM ET-02-08-10-risky
Looking for a 2.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP RICS House Price Balance
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________29%__________30%
_____32%_______ 28%__________ 30%
Out at 31% or higher – BUY GBP/JPY
Out at 27% or lower – SELL GBP/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 2%

I did execute a trade of the GBP/JPY currency pair – a winner!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP currency chart

a one minute EUR/GBP chart

This EUR/GBP currency pair moved down for 6 minutes about 10 PIPS
Ranged!

(GBP/CAD)

a one minute GBP/CAD currency chart

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair moved up for 6 minutes about 23 PIPS – right direction
Ranged!

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up for 20 minutes about 48 PIPS – right direction
Entered a small winning trade here!

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved up for 20 minutes about 35 PIPS – right direction

Here is the set up for this month:

GBP – RICS House Price Balance stats:

previous = 32%

forecast = 36%

Here is how I am set up for a possible trade.

GBP 7-01PM ET-03-08-10
Looking for a 2.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP RICS House Price Balance
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________36%__________32%
Out at 38% or higher – BUY GBP/JPY
Out at 34% or lower – SELL GBP/JPY

I will post a “follow up” of this report soon after.

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Monday, 04-12-10 at 6:01 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Housing Reports | Tagged , | Comments (0)