Follow Up – CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report

September 3, 2010 – 10:09 am

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On Monday, 08-31-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Canadian Statistics Canada did release the monthly CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report, which is released about 60 days after the months end.

I posted a “preview” of this economic news report on Monday, 08-30-10, click here to view.

Here is what happened:

CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM – Stats

Previous = 0.1%

Forecast = 0.2%

Actual = 0.2%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-08-31-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD GDP m/m
——actual——-forecast——–previous
____0.2%______0.2%________0.1%
out higher  by 1.2% – SELL GBP/CAD
out lower by -0.8% – BUY GBP/CAD
Neutral “actual” came out just as “forecast“
Good “actual” came out higher then “previous“ by 0.1%

I did not execute a trade this time since the “actual” was not great enough.

Here are the charts:

(CAD/JPY)

a one minute CAD/JPY currency chart

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This currency pair CAD/JPY moved down for 6 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 13 minutes about 24 PIPS

(EUR/CAD)

a one minute EUR/CAD currency chart

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This currency pair EUR/CAD spiked up 1st minute about 39 PIPS
Ranged for 20 minutes

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved up for 50 minutes about 56 PIPS

(GBP/CAD)

a one minute GBP/CAD currency chart

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This currency pair GBP/CAD spiked up 1st minute about 41 PIPS
Ranged for 23 minutes

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD spiked up 1st minute about 27 PIPS
Moved down next 18 minutes about 31 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY moved down for 6 minutes about 14 PIPS
Ranged for 18 minutes

The next scheduled release of these reports on Thursday, 09-30-10 at 8:30 AM ET, at this point in time there may be additional reports released at the same time.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report

September 2, 2010 – 6:36 am


Tomorrow, Friday, 09-03-10 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD ISM Non-Manufacturing  Composite report will be released.

This report is released by the Institute of Supply Management.

I did not enter a trade last report!

Last month I did a “follow up” of this report , click here for a review.

Here is what is happening tomorrow:

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing  Composite stats:

Previous = 54.3

Forecast = 53.6

The economists are forecasting a very small decline in the economy.

Here is my set up for tomorrow.

USD-10-00AM-ET-09-03-10
Looking for a 3 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
——actual———-forecast——previous
________________53.6_______54.3
out at 56.6 or higher – SELL EUR/USD
out at 50.6 or lower – BUY EUR/USD

Be sure to check out the “follow up” post for last month.

I will post a “follow up” of this months results soon after.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 10-05-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably write a “preview” post a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports

September 2, 2010 – 5:07 am


Tomorrow, on Friday, 09-03-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly reports of the USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

These will be released along with 1 other economic report:

USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

This additional report should not greatly affect the currency market.

I did trade the EUR/USD last month – 2 loses – see the “follow up”

I  did a “follow up” post for last months release, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports are set up for this month:

USD Non-Farm Employment Change – Stats

Previous = -131K

Forecast = -101K

USD Unemployment Rate – Stats

Previous = 9.5%

Forecast = 9.6%

It appears that the economists believe that the Employment Change is going to improve and that the Unemployment Rate is going to increase over last month.

It is difficult for me to say which report will have the greatest impact on the market, some say that the Employment Change is the report that has the most impact.

I am going to watch both very carefully, hopefully they will come out in the same direction – Employment Change will improve and Unemployment Rate will go down, or a reversal of both.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-ET-09-03-10
Looking for a 100K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________-101K_______-131K
out at  -201K or lower – SELL USD/JPY
out at -001K or higher – BUY USD/JPY
USD Unemployment Rate
_________________9.6%  ______9.5%
Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
0.2 diff. watch for conflict

I will post a “follow up” of these reports.

The next release of these reports is scheduled for Friday, 10-08-10 at 8:30 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Employment Economics | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Follow Up – AUD Retail Sales m/m and AUD Building Approvals reports

September 1, 2010 – 8:01 am


On Monday, 08-30-10, at 9:30 PM ET the AUD Retail Sales m/m report was released.

Also, the AUD Building Approvals report was released.

Along with 3 other reports:

AUD Current Account
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y

The AUD Retail Sales m/m , Building Approvals and Current Account reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The AUD Private Sector Credit m/m report is released monthly by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y is released monthly by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

I did a “preview” post of these reports on Sunday, 08-29-10, click here to check it out.

The AUD Retail Sales m/m and Building Approvals reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Lets take a look at what happened:

AUD Building Approvals m/m Stats:

Previous = -3.3%—————revised= -3.4%

Forecast = -0.6%

Actual = 2.3%

AUD Retail Sales m/m Stats:

Previous = 0.2%—————revised= 0.4%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = 0.7%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

AUD-9-30PM-ET-08-30-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Building Approvals m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_______________-0.6%________-3.3%
______2.3%_____ -0.6%_______ -3.4%
Out at 1.6% or higher – BUY AUD/JPY
Out at 1.1% or lower – SELL AUD/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 2.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 5.6%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 5.7%

AUD Retail Sales m/m
________________0.4% ________0.2%
______0.7%______ 0.4%________ 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.3%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.5%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.3%

It does not appear these reports were in any conflict! – I did enter 2 trades of  the currency pair AUD/JPY – both lost!!  The currency pair AUD/NZD moved in the right direction.

Here are the charts:

(AUD/JPY)

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

This AUD/JPY currency pair move up 1st 3 minutes about 33 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 47 minutes about 45 PIPS – wrong direction
2 losing trades here!!

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

This AUD/NZD currency pair moved up for 30 minutes about 34 PIPS – right direction
Ranged!
This was the best currency pair to trade!

(AUD/USD)

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

This AUD/USD currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 31 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 34 minutes about 28 PIPS - wrong direction

(EUR/AUD)

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

This EUR/AUD currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 42 PIPS – right direction
Moved up next 34 minutes about 36 PIPS – wrong direction

The next scheduled release of AUD – Building Approvals report is on Monday, 10-04-10 at 9:30 PM ET.

The next scheduled release of AUD – Retails Sales report is on Monday, 10-04-10 at 9:30 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this release.

So—Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI report

August 31, 2010 – 11:08 am


Tomorrow, Wednesday, 09-01-10 at 10:00 AM ET the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI report will be released along with two other reports.

USD Construction Spending (MoM)
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI has the greatest impact on the currency markets.

The USD ISM Manufacturing PMI is released by the Institute of Supply Management
and is released monthly,

and the Construction Spending is released by the Census Bureau and is released monthly.

And the USD ISM Manufacturing Prices is released by Institute for Supply Management.

I did a “follow up” post for last month, click here for a review.

I did not trade last time!!!

Here is the set up for this month:

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI stats:

Previous = 55.5

Forecast = 53.2

The Manufacturing PMI as “forecast” shows a decline for the US economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-09-01-10
Looking for a Change of 2 to 3
Actual >  Forecast = Good for USD
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
——actual——-forecast——-previous
_______________53.2_______55.5
out at 55.2 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 51.2 or lower – SELL USD/JPY

I will post a “follow up” soon after.

The next scheduled release of the USD – Manufacturing PMI is Wednesday, 09-01-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior for each one.

I am not sure when the next scheduled release of  this combination of reports will be.

But, stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change report

August 31, 2010 – 9:23 am


Tomorrow, Wednesday, 09-01-10 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” will be released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

I did not enter a trade last news release!

I did a “follow up” of the last months report, posted on Sunday, 08-08-10, click here for a review.

Let us check out what is happening tomorrow.

USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:

Previous = 42K

Forecast = 20K

It appears that the employment situation is predicted to decrease.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-15AM-ET-09-01-10
Looking for a 50K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________20K________42K
out at 70K or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at -30K or lower – SELL USD/JPY

I will post a “follow up” of this report.

The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday, 10-06-10 at 8:15 AM ET.
Stay tuned!

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So – stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Employment Economics | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – GBP Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing report

August 31, 2010 – 5:08 am


On Wednesday, 09-01-10 at 4:30AM ET, the GBP Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing report is scheduled for release.

I did a “follow up” post last month on Tuesday, 08-03-10 , click here for a review.

This PMI Manufacturing Index report is now released by Markit

There is one thing to be aware of, subscribers to Reuters receive the data 2 minutes prior to listed calendar time. Be sure to take a look at what happened last month.

Prior to the present market conditions, a difference of 4 or 5 from the “forecast” could cause a good market move.

This months report is set up as follows:

GBP Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing Index stats:

Previous = 57.3

Forecast = 57.1

Here is how I am set up:

GBP-4-30AM-ET-09-01-10
Looking for a 1.8 change
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Manufacturing PMI
——actual——forecast—–previous
______________57.1_______57.3
out at 58.9 or higher buy GBP/USD
out at 55.3 or lower sell GBP/USD
Watch for reversal!

I did not enter a trade last time!!

I am going to use a 1.8 “actual” difference figure from the “forecast” to indicate a possible surprise to the currency trading market. And will be set up to trade the currency pair GBP/USD this time.

If the “actual” comes out higher than the “forecast” by 1.8, that would be good for the GBP and currency pairs involving the GBP could move in favor of the GBP – the opposite of course could happen if the “actual” is less than “forecast”.

I will be looking for a reversal after about 3 minutes – maybe!!!.

I will post a “follow Up” soon after.

Now we all know that past performances are not an indication of future results!

It appears that the next scheduled release of this report will be on Friday, 10-01-10 at 4:30 AM-ET, however, at times scheduling of releases may change.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – AUD Gross Domestic Product QoQ report

August 30, 2010 – 5:14 am


On Tuesday, 08-31-10 at 9:30 PM ET, the AUD Gross Domestic Product QoQ report will be released.

I did a “follow up” post of the last news report, click here to see.

These news report is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Here is how the report for this month is set up:

AUD Gross Domestic Product QoQ – Stats

Previous = 0.5%

Forecast = 0.9%

It appears the economists believe the AUD economy is improving.

Here is how I am setting up for this news report.

AUD-9-30PM-ET-08-31-10
Looking for a 0.2%  difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD GDP q/q
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________0.9%________0.5%
Out at 1.1% or higher – BUY AUD/NZD
Out at 0.7% or lower – SELL AUD/NZD

Soon after the report has been released I will post a “follow up” report of the results.

The next scheduled release of these two reports is on Tuesday, 11-30-10 at 8:30 PM ET.
The schedule could change.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – USD Consumer Confidence report

August 30, 2010 – 4:40 am


On Tuesday, 08-31-10, at 10:00 AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report will be released.

The last “follow up” was posted on Wednesday, 07-28-10, click here for a review.

The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

The USD Consumer Confidence report appears to have a good impact on the FOREX market.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 50.4

Forecast = 50.9

The “forecast” implies that the economists may be feeling a little more positive about the future economy of the USA.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM–ET08-31-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________50.9_________50.4
out at 55.9 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 45.9 or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Again, I will be looking for a 5.0 difference between the “actual” report and the “forecast”, this time I will probably set up to trade the currency pair USD/JPY – if the “actual” is lower then “forecast” by 5.0 or more I will execute a “SELL” trade a minute or two after the  market has settled out. Of course, a “BUY” trade if the “actual” is higher then the “forecast”.

Check out the last “follow up” report for an idea how the market reacts to the “actual” outcome of the report.

I will post a “follow up” soon after.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 09-28-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

So—Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Preview – CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report

August 30, 2010 – 4:15 am


On Tuesday, 08-31-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Canadian Statistics Canada will release the monthly CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report, released about 60 days after the months end.

I posted a “follow up” on Sunday, 08-01-10 of the July news release, click here to see.

Here is what is going on tomorrow:

CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM – Stats

Previous = 0.1%

Forecast = 0.2%

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-08-31-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD GDP m/m
——actual——-forecast——–previous
______________0.2%________0.1%
out higher  by 1.2% – SELL GBP/CAD
out lower by -0.8% – BUY GBP/CAD

I will set up to trade either the GBP/CAD or the EUR/CAD currency pairs – looking for a 1.0% difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“.

Soon after this report was released, I did post a “follow up” report of the results, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Thursday, 09-30-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)