Follow Up USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM

July 29, 2010 – 9:34 am


On Wednesday, 07-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau released the monthly report USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM report.

My “preview” post concerning these reports was on Tuesday, 07-27-10, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports for this month were set up and the results:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 1.6%_______  revised = 1.2%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = -0.6%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-7-30AM-ET-07-28-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________0.6%________1.6%
_____-0.6%____ 0.6%_______ 1.2%
out at -0.9% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
out at 2.1% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 1.8%

There was not enough of a difference – but, I did enter a trade this time of  the currency pair USD/JPY – and it was a wnner!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 2 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 49 minutes about 39 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved up/down 1st 2 minutes
Moved up next 3 minutes about 15 PIPS
Ranged for 6 minutes
Moved down next 10 minutes about 24 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved down for 3 minutes about 40 PIPS
Moved up next 49 minutes about 71 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved up/down 1st 4 minutes about 6 PIPS/ 14 PIPS
Moved up next 15 minutes about 25 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair Ranged!

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 23 PIPS
Ranged for 7 minutes!
Moved up next 35 minutes about 20 PIPS

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report

July 29, 2010 – 8:20 am


On Monday, 07-30-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Canadian Statistics Canada will release the monthly CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM report, released about 60 days after the months end.

Additional news releases are:

USD Advance GDP q/q
USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis

USD Employment Cost Index q/q

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

I posted a “follow up” on Sunday, 06-06-10 of the May news release, click here to see.

Here is what is going on tomorrow:

CAD Gross Domestic Product MoM – Stats

Previous = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.1%

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-07-30-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD GDP m/m
——actual——-forecast——–previous
______________0.1%________0.0%
out higher  by 1.1% – SELL GBP/CAD
out lower by -0.9% – BUY GBP/CAD

I will set up to trade either the GBP/CAD or the EUR/CAD currency pairs – looking for a 1.0% difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“.

Soon after this report is released, I will post a “follow up” report of the results.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 08-31-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Follow Up – USD Consumer Confidence report

July 28, 2010 – 7:55 am


On Tuesday, 07-27-10, at 10:00AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report was  released.

The last “preview” was posted on Monday, 07-26-10, click here for a review.

Also the USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index was released by The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 52.9

Forecast = 51.5———– revised = 51.3

Actual = 50.4

Here is how I was set up, and the results:

USD-10-00 AM-ET-07-27-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________51.5_________52.9
______50.4____ 51.3
out at 56.5 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 46.5 or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.1
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.9
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.5

Did not enter a trade!!

I had set up to trade the currency pair USD/JPY with a 5.0 difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.

Well, the “actual” did not come out greater then the 5.0 difference!

Check out the charts.

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The currency pair EUR/JPY moved up 1st 2 minutes about 23 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 61 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

The currency pair EUR/USD moved up 1st 2 minutes about 14 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 52 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

The currency pair GBP/JPY moved up 1st 2 minutes about 26 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 57 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

The currency pair GBP/USD moved up 1st 2 minutes about 14 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 42 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

The currency pair USD/CAD moved down 1st 2 minutes about 20 PIPS
Moved up for 44 minutes about 80 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The currency pair USD/JPY moved up 1st minute about 9 PIPS
Moved down for 7 minutes about 22 PIPS
Moved up for 39 minutes about 49 PIPS

The next release of these reports will be on Tuesday, 08-31-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results.

So—Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Follow up – USD New Home Sales report

July 27, 2010 – 9:40 am


On Monday, 07-26-10 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD New Home Sales report was  released by the Census Bureau

I did a “preview” of these reports on Sunday, 07-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET, click here for a review.

Here is what happened:

USD – New Home Sales – Stats

Previous = 300K ————-revised = 267K

Forecast = 317K

Actual = 330K

I was looking for a 30K difference of the “actual” above or below the “forecast” as the point to enter my trade, which it did not – I did not entered a trade!!

Here is how I was set up and the results:

USD-10-00 AM-ET-07-26-10
Looking for a 30K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD New Home Sales
——actual———-forecast——-previous
________________317K______300K
_____330K______ 317K______ 267K
Out at 287K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 347K  or higher- SELL EUR/USD
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 13K
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 30K
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 63K

I did not execute a trade this time!! Not enough difference!!

Here are the charts.

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The EURJPY currency pair moved up for 16 minutes about 47 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

The EUR/USD currency pair ranged up for 11 minutes about 12 PIPS
Moved down for 37 minutes about 28 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

The GBP/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 4 minutes about 48 PIPS
ranged for about 16 minutes

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

The GBP/USD currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down for about 45 minutes about 50 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

The USD/CAD currency pair moved down for 16 minutes about 31 PIPS
Moved up for about 31 minutes about 32 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The USD/JPY currency pair moved up for 16 minutes about 30 PIPS

The next schedule release of these reports will be on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Housing Reports | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – USD Core Durable Goods and Durable Goods Orders report

July 27, 2010 – 4:49 am


On Thursday, 07-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau will release the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

My last “follow up” post concerning these USD reports was on Thursday, 06-24-10, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 1.6%

Forecast = 0.6%

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-ET-07-28-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________0.6%________1.6%
out at -0.9% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
out at 2.1% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
______________0.9%______  -0.6%

It appears that the economists believe that durable goods orders will show a increase over last month, but the core durable goods orders will decrease this time. A possible conflict!

The Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but if they both do not come out moving in the same direction, either positive or negative, there can be a conflict, who knows what may happen then.

I did post a “follow up” report of the results, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Manufacturing Industry | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Follow Up CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and Consumer Price Index MoM reports

July 26, 2010 – 9:24 am

On Friday, 07-23-10 at 7:00 AM ET, The CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and the CAD – Consumer Price Index MoM was released.

The CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and the CAD – Consumer Price Index MoM appear to have the greatest impact on the FOREX market.

The 2 Consumer reports are released by Statistics Canada

I did a “preview” post on Thursday, 07-22-10, click here for a review.

Here is how things went:

CAD Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) Stats

previous = 0.3%

forecast = 0.1%

forecast = -0.1%

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Stats

previous = 0.3%

forecast = -0.2%

forecast = -0.1%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

CAD-7-00 AM-ET-07-23-10
Looking for a 0.3% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Core Consumer Price Index (MoM)
——actual———forecast——–previous
_____-0.1%_______0.1%________0.3%
out at 0.4% or higher – SELL GBP/CAD
out at -0.2% or lower- BUY GBP/CAD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.4%

CAD CPI m/m
_______-0.1%______-0.2%_______ 0.3%
Watch for both reports to go in same direction
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.4%

Did not enter a trade this time!!

Here are the charts:

(CAD/JPY)

a one minute CAD/JPY currency chart

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair spiked down/up 1st 2 minutes about 14 PIPS/ 35 PIPS
Ranged for 34 minutes

(EUR/CAD)

a one minute EUR/CAD currency chart

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair spike up 1st minute about 22 PIPS
Moved down for 59 minutes about 106 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair small move up 1st 2 minutes about
Moved down for 48 minutes about 40 PIPS

(GBP/CAD)

a one minute GBP/CAD currency chart

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair spiked up 1st minute about 29 PIPS
Moved down for 60 minutes about 118 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute USD/USD currency pair

a one minute USD/USD currency pair

This GBP/USD currency pair small move up 1st 2 minutes
Moved down for 52 minutes about 35 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair spiked up/down 1st 2 minutes about 18 PIPS/ 44 PIPS
Ranged for 34 minutes

The next release of this report is scheduled for Friday, 08-20-10 at 7:00 AM ET.

I have noticed lately that pre-scheduled economic news releases are sometimes re-scheduled later on.

I will probably post a preview of this report a day prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Follow Up – USD Existing Home Sales report

July 26, 2010 – 5:20 am


On Thursday, 07-22-10 at 10:00 AM ET, a USD report was released, it was the USD Existing Home Sales report, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors.

This report was released alone with 3 others:

USD-HPI MoM
USD-CB Leading Index
EUR Consumer Confidence

I did a “preview” post on Wednesday, 07-21-10 for these reports, click here for a review.

Here are the stats for this month:

USD Existing Home Sales stats:

Previous = 5.66 M

Forecast = 5.15 M———-revised = 5.18 M

Actual = 5.37 M

This “forecast” indicated that there would be a decrease of home sales over last months sales, but it did not come out that way – there was an increase.

Here is how I was set up for these reports, and the results:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 200K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Existing Home Sales
——actual——–forecast———-previous
______________5.15M________5.66M
_____5.37M____ 5.18M
Out at 5.35M or Higher – BUY USD/CAD
Out at 4.95M or Lower- SELL USD/CAD
Good – “actual” came out higher then the “forecast” by 220K
Good – “actual” came out higher then the revised “forecast” by 190K
Bad – “actual” came out lower then the “previous” by 290K

I did execute a trade of the USD/CAD and it was a loser!

The currency pair USD/JPY would have been a better trade pair!

Let’s take a look at the charts and see how things worked out:

(EUR/JPY )

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved up for 17 minutes about 83 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair ranged for 15 minutes
Spiked up next minute about 40 PIPS – wrong direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up for 17 minutes about 69 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 15 minutes about 18 PIPS – right direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved down for 17 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction A losing trade!

(USD/JPY )

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved up for 15 minutes about 44 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of this report will be Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 10:00 AM ET. A month is a long time, re-scheduling can occur any time.

I will probably be writing a “preview” post for this up-coming report.

So, stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Housing Reports | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – USD Consumer Confidence report

July 26, 2010 – 4:09 am


On Tuesday, 07-27-10, at 10:00 AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report will be released.

The last “follow up” was posted on Tuesday, 07-06-10, click here for a review.

The Consumer Confidence  is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

Also, the Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released by The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond – released monthly.

The USD Consumer Confidence report appears to have a good impact on the FOREX market.

The last 2 releases I traded and won both times.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 52.9

Forecast = 51.5

The “forecast” implies that the economists may not be feeling positive about the future economy of the USA.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-27-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________51.5_________52.9
out at 56.5 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 46.5 or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Again, I will be looking for a 5.0 difference between the “actual” report and the “forecast”, this time I will probably set up to trade the currency pair USD/JPY – if the “actual” is lower then “forecast” by 5.0 or more I will execute a “SELL” trade a minute or two after the  market has settled out. Of course, a “BUY” trade if the “actual” is higher then the “forecast”

Check out the last “follow up” report for an idea how the market reacts to the “actual” outcome of the report.

I did post a “follow up” soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 07-31-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

So—Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Follow Up – CAD – Retail Sales MoM and Core Retail Sales MoM reports

July 25, 2010 – 8:17 am


On Thursday, 07-22-10 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

And the USD – Initial Jobless Claims was released weekly by the Department of Labor

I posted a “preview” post on Wednesday, 07-21-10, click here for a review.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -2.0%———–revised = -2.2%

Forecast = 0.5%

Actual = -0.2%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -1.2%———–revised = -1.4%

Forecast = 0.5%

Actual = -0.1%

Here is how I was set up and the results:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast——previous
________________0.5%______-2.0%
____-0.2%_______  0.5%_____  -2.2%
out at -1.0% or lower – SELL CAD/JPY
out at 2.0% or higher – BUY CAD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.8%

Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 2.0%

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
________________0.5%________-1.2%
____-0.1%_______ 0.5%_______ -1.4%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.6%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.1%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 2.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.3%

Executed 2 trades with currency pair CAD/JPY
Both winners!!!

The EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD currency pairs moved much better.

Check out the charts:

(CAD/JPY)

a one minute CAD/JPY currency chart

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair spiked down/up 1st 3 minutes about 36 PIPS/ 25 PIPS
Moved down next 11 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction
Executed  2 trades, both winners

(EUR/CAD)

a one minute EUR/CAD currency chart

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair moved up for 15 minutes about 60 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/CAD)

a one minute GBP/CAD currency chart

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair moved up for 15 minutes about 62 PIPS – right direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved up for 12 minutes about 49 PIPS - right direction

The next time these reports are scheduled to be released is on Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 8:30AM ET.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Monetary Influence | Tagged , | Comments (1)

Preview – USD New Home Sales report

July 25, 2010 – 5:25 am


Tomorrow, Monday, 07-26-10 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD New Home Sales monthly report will be released by the Census Bureau

I did a “follow up” of the last “preview” post of these reports on Sunday, 07-04-10, click here for a review.

Here is what is coming up tomorrow:

USD – New Home Sales – Stats

Previous = 300K

Forecast = 317K

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-26-10
Looking for a 30K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD New Home Sales
——actual———-forecast——-previous
________________317K______300K
Out at 287K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 330K  or higher- SELL EUR/USD

Will the “New Home Sales” improve? We will see!!

Remember, what has happened in the past may not repeat itself under similar circumstances.

I did write a “follow up” post of these reports, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled report is on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

By shark | Posted in Housing Reports | Tagged , | Comments (1)